Liberals surging in Ontario Tories falter in crucial battleground, but gain throughout West, poll finds
TU THANH HA AND JANE TABER,
MONTREAL and ST. JOHN'S -- A week after the election writ was dropped, Conservative support in Ontario has sagged markedly, giving the Liberals a firm lead in the key battleground of the federal campaign, polling results indicate.
Nightly tracking numbers compiled by the Strategic Counsel for The Globe and Mail and CTV show that Paul Martin's Liberals have widened the five-point lead they enjoyed before the election was called to a 12-point gap.
The week before the election was called, the Liberals had 40-per-cent support in Ontario. It has remained stable and now stands at 42 per cent.
The Conservatives, however, have slipped from 35 to 30 per cent.
Across the country, polling numbers remain stable with the Liberals holding a four-point edge over the Conservatives.
The Conservatives have strengthened their showing in the Prairies but have slipped where the stakes are the highest, in the battle for Ontario's 106 seats in the House of Commons.
"From an efficiency point of view, the Conservatives don't need a lot more votes out West," said Strategic Counsel managing partner Tim Woolstencroft.
"If they want to form even a minority government they'll have to do better in Ontario. They have to be much closer to the Liberals."
Conservative Leader Stephen Harper has dominated the news, dictating the agenda with promises to trim the GST, appoint an independent special prosecutor at the federal level and reopen the debate on same-sex marriage.
But Mr. Harper's announcements so far haven't dented the Liberals. The Strategic Counsel polling results show that Mr. Harper's pledges on the GST and gay marriage have found most resonance with respondents who are already converted to the Conservative creed.
"Out West, the Conservatives have consolidated their support. But clearly Ontario is the key one, given how many seats are involved," Mr. Woolstencroft said.
In the West, the Conservatives remain strong. In the Prairies, they soared from 50 to 59 per cent, while the Liberals dropped from 27 to 25 per cent. In British Columbia, the Conservatives also rose, from 30 to 34 per cent, while the Liberals slipped from 35 to 31 per cent.
In Quebec, Liberal support is softening to 26 per cent from 30 per cent in the pre-election phase, leaving the field to the Bloc, which enjoyed an eye-popping 30-point lead.
Liberal strategists were not that surprised last night with their increased fortunes in Ontario, where they say their message is one of "restraint."
The Liberal's national director, Steven MacKinnon, said what is resonating with Ontario voters is the Liberals' message of "fiscal management" combined with its "social programs."
But they are pacing themselves at this early stage of the two-month campaign. Mr. Martin is participating in about two events a day, and so far taking the weekends off.
"The campaign pace is important in an eight-week campaign," said Mr. MacKinnon, who is travelling on the Martin tour.
They flew to St. John's last night. And Mr. MacKinnon suggested that it is far too early in the campaign to take anything for granted.
Still, the Liberals view Ontario with its 106 seats as a land of opportunity, and hope to increase their 74-seat count with wins in several eastern Ontario ridings, including Cornwall, Ottawa Centre and in Belleville.
They are also looking to make gains in Southwestern Ontario, around the Windsor area. The endorsement by Canadian Auto Workers president Buzz Hargrove last week has given what the Martin Liberals believe is a boost in that area.
The Prime Minister is scheduled to visit Windsor on Thursday, after campaigning in Newfoundland, New Brunswick and Quebec.
But Liberal strategists indicated last night that they are saving their real fire for the three crucial weeks of campaigning after Christmas.
"I think it's safe to assume this is a two-phase campaign," Mr. MacKinnon said.
Another Liberal strategist said that policy announcements by the Liberals will "ramp up as we come around the corner."
The corner being referred to is the election period that comes after Christmas.
Meanwhile, the strategy in Ontario for the Liberals right now is "steady as she goes," said the strategist.
"We will continue to let Harper [talk and make announcements]. The more he [talks], the more people do not feel comfortable with him," the strategist said. "He reeks with insincerity."
In fact, Mr. MacKinnon said they are quite "comfortable" with all that.
He stifled a fake yawn as he said that, indicating that the announcements seemed to be having no effect on the Liberals.
"No one is paying attention," Mr. MacKinnnon said.
So far, Mr. Martin has kept a low profile and focused his message on national unity and stoking concerns about another referendum on sovereignty.
The 12-percentage-point gap is sizable, even when taking the smaller provincial sample size into account, Mr. Woolstencroft said. "More importantly, it's been over the last five days that we've seen this gap."
The survey is based on a nightly rolling poll of Canadians of voting age.
The latest results were collected from Nov. 30 to Dec. 30, with a sample size of 1,550 respondents, producing results that are accurate within 2.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
The regional error margin for Ontario was 4.1 per cent.
The pre-election figures were gathered Nov. 24 to Nov. 27.
Globeandmail.com
Follow the progress of the candidates as they travel Canada in search of votes.
Party polling
How would Canadians vote if an election was held today?
(Nov. 30-Dec. 3)
| Liberals | 34% |
| Conservative | 30% |
| NDP | 16% |
| Bloc Quebecois | 14% |
| Green Party | 6% |
Posted at Monday, December 5, 2005 EDT 
